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TL;DR
Intel shares fell about 29% on Oct. 30, 2026, after the company forecast fourth-quarter revenue and margins below analyst expectations, despite reporting 21% revenue growth for the third quarter. The decline reduced the market value of the U.S. government’s Intel shares by about $12 billion in one day, though the stake remained worth far more than the government paid.
Intel shares fell about 29% on Friday, Oct. 30, closing at $65.76 after the chipmaker forecast fourth-quarter revenue and gross margins below analyst expectations. The drop erased about $12 billion from the market value of the U.S. government’s Intel stake in one day, though that holding remained substantially above the government’s purchase cost.
Intel reported third-quarter revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21% from a year earlier and above its own guidance. Adjusted earnings were $0.52 per share, compared with the company’s forecast of $0.38. Its Data Center and AI division generated $7.3 billion in revenue, a 78% increase that Intel described as its strongest growth in 15 years.
The outlook, rather than the reported quarter, weighed on the stock. Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, below the $17.1 billion analysts expected, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC. The company also projected an adjusted gross margin of 38%, down from 44.1% in the third quarter, and adjusted earnings of $0.25 per share, compared with analysts’ $0.43 estimate.
The shares closed at $92.07 on Thursday before the results and at $65.76 on Friday. Yahoo Finance’s calculation put the fall in Intel’s market value at nearly $140 billion. It said that, in closing-price data extending back to May 1973, only the drop on July 5, 1974, was worse. The comparison is based on daily closing prices, not intraday trading.
Infographic 01 · One day, one stake
One trading day cost Washington more than it paid
Intel's stock fell about 29% on Friday after a weak forecast. Here is what that did to the shares the US government bought in August 2025, and how the price compares with what other buyers paid.
The government’s stake, on paper
433.3 million shares × price
- PaidAug 2025, at $20.47 a share$8.9B
- Thursday's close29 Oct 2026, $92.07$39.9B
- Friday's close30 Oct 2026, $65.76$28.5B
The one-day loss (about $11.4B) was larger than the $8.9B the government paid. The stake is still worth roughly three times its cost.
What different buyers paid per share
Red line: Friday’s close, $65.76
- US governmentAug 2025 · 433.3M shares$20.47
- SoftBankSep 2025 · 87M shares$23.00
- Nvidiaagreed Sep 2025 · 215M shares$23.28
- Public offeringAug 2026 · about 242M shares$95.00
2025 buyers are far above water; buyers of the August 2026 offering are about 31% below their price (my arithmetic).
Market prices as reported by Yahoo Finance and CNBC for 29–30 October 2026; no licensed price feed. Stake values: Yahoo Finance’s arithmetic with 433.3 million shares. Purchase prices from Intel’s 10-Q and the August 2025 agreement.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, 30 Oct · Yahoo Finance (stake), 30 Oct · CNBC, 30 Oct · Intel 10-Q, 30 Oct · Intel 8-K, 22 Aug 2025.
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A Two-Sided AI Demand Shock
Intel’s results point to a mismatch between rising demand for server processors and pressure on its larger PC business. Data Center and AI revenue rose sharply, but Intel said it could not meet all server-chip demand. At the same time, the source account says heavy data-center demand for memory has raised prices, making PCs more expensive and weighing on purchases.
The stakes extend beyond investors. Intel is a major U.S. chipmaker, and the government became one of its largest shareholders through an investment in 2025. The share-price plunge therefore affected the reported market value of a public-sector holding as well as private portfolios. It also puts attention on Intel’s ability to turn demand for AI-related chips into products it can manufacture and deliver.
That does not mean the government has realized a loss of $12 billion: the figure is a one-day change in market value. Nor does it erase the holding’s reported gain over its purchase cost. The near-term business question is whether Intel can improve supply and margins while its PC segment faces weaker demand and higher component costs.
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How Washington Acquired Its Intel Stake
The U.S. government acquired 433.3 million Intel shares in August 2025 at $20.47 per share, for a stated total cost of about $8.9 billion. The source account says the investment was paid for with chip grants previously promised to Intel. Based on those figures, the shares were worth about $39.9 billion at Thursday’s close and about $28.5 billion at Friday’s close. Those are market-value estimates, not proceeds from a sale.
Intel’s stock had climbed sharply during 2026 before the sell-off. Yahoo Finance calculated that it had nearly quadrupled from the start of the year to a record on June 22. After Friday’s decline, it was still reported to be up nearly 80% for the year, but more than half below that peak. The wider market also fell on Friday: CNBC reported a 2.9% decline in the Nasdaq Composite, alongside losses in several large chip stocks.
Intel’s forecast reflects more than one pressure. Its PC chip revenue fell 5% in the third quarter, and the company expected it to decline by more than 20% from the third to the fourth quarter. The source account also reports that a fatal accident at an Intel factory in Israel was expected to reduce current-quarter revenue by about $300 million. These factors complicate any simple reading of the results as either an AI success or a broad collapse in demand.
““Not fixed yet””
— D.A. Davidson, as reported by CNBC
The Unresolved Supply and Demand
Intel’s forecast does not establish how quickly it can increase production of server chips or satisfy demand from data-center customers. The source account also identifies memory prices and PC affordability as pressures, but does not quantify how long those conditions may last or how much they will affect sales beyond the coming quarter.
It is also unclear whether outside customers will commit to using Intel’s manufacturing operations at the scale needed to support the company’s longer-term plans. The account says Intel’s finance chief warned that positive free cash flow next year was unlikely, but it gives no further forecast figures here. The reported value of the government’s shares is based on market prices; the material does not say whether the government plans to sell any of them.
Production, PCs and Factory Customers
Investors will be watching Intel’s next results and updates for evidence that it can deliver more server chips, stabilize PC demand and improve gross margins. The company’s forecast for the October-to-December quarter sets the immediate test: revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion and an adjusted gross margin of 38%.
Further updates on memory costs, the effect of the Israel factory accident and customer commitments to Intel’s factories could clarify how much of the outlook pressure is temporary. The source material does not give a date for a new government decision on its stake or an additional Intel milestone beyond the next-quarter outlook.
Key Questions
Why did Intel shares fall after a strong quarter?
Investors focused on Intel’s fourth-quarter forecast, which was below analyst expectations for revenue, adjusted earnings and gross margin. The third-quarter results were stronger than Intel’s own guidance, but share prices can react to expectations for future performance.
How much did the U.S. government’s Intel stake lose in value?
The source account estimates the shares’ market value fell from about $39.9 billion to $28.5 billion between Thursday and Friday, a decline of roughly $12 billion. This was a change in market value, not a realized loss from a sale.
Is the government’s Intel investment below its purchase cost?
No, based on the figures in the source account. The government paid about $8.9 billion for the shares, which were estimated to be worth about $28.5 billion at Friday’s close. Market values can change, and the government’s current plans for the holding were not specified.
How is demand for AI affecting Intel’s business?
Intel’s Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% to $7.3 billion in the third quarter. The source account says data-center demand is also drawing on memory supplies and contributing to higher PC prices, which may hurt Intel’s PC-chip business.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
