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TL;DR
Singapore’s preliminary third-quarter 2026 data show 4,800 retrenchments, the highest quarterly count since late 2020, even as total employment grew. The official figures point to business reorganisation as the main driver; separate graduate data show a tougher path into permanent work, while the scale of AI’s role remains uncertain.
Singapore recorded 4,800 retrenchments in the third quarter of 2026, the highest quarterly total since late 2020, according to preliminary Ministry of Manpower data released October 30. The increase comes as graduates across the region describe a harder search for work, but the figures do not establish AI as the cause: Singapore’s ministry says business reorganisation was the main driver, while employment overall continued to grow.
Retrenchments rose from 4,620 in the second quarter and 3,670 in the third quarter of 2025. The last higher quarterly count was 5,640 in the fourth quarter of 2020. The layoff rate, measured as retrenchments per 1,000 employees, remained at 2.0. The advance release is preliminary, with a fuller report due in December.
The Ministry of Manpower said layoffs remained elevated in selected outward-oriented sectors, including information and communications, financial services and manufacturing. Services accounted for about 4,000 of the third-quarter retrenchments, manufacturing for 700 and construction for 100. In its second-quarter data, the ministry counted 4,620 retrenched workers, of whom 3,950 were professionals, managers, executives or technicians. That earlier breakdown indicates that experienced professionals made up most reported layoffs; it is not yet a detailed profile of the third-quarter total.
Other indicators give a more mixed picture. Total employment grew by 27,700 in the third quarter, and the overall unemployment rate was 2.0% in September. At the same time, graduate outcomes weakened: among job-seeking graduates from Singapore’s six public universities, 83.4% of the 2025 cohort had found work within six months, compared with 87.1% for the previous cohort. The share in full-time permanent jobs fell to 74.4% from 79.4%.
Infographic 01 · The numbers
Singapore's layoffs climb to a near six-year high
Retrenchments have risen in each of the last five quarters while employment kept growing. The official reason is restructuring.
Retrenchments per quarter
Number of employees laid off · selected quarters · rounded to the nearest 10
3Q 2026 by sector
Main driver: business reorganisation · elevated in information and communications, financial services, manufacturing
Mixed signals for the next quarter
Share of firms, August → September 2026
- Expect to hire in the next 3 months30.5% → 42.3%
- Expect to raise wages16.9% → 19.9%
- Expect to retrench2.8% → 3.1%MOM: “emerging weaknesses … that warrant close monitoring”
The economy grew 5.9% year on year in 2Q 2026 (MTI). Rising layoffs in a growing economy point to restructuring rather than a collapse in demand. The 3Q figures are preliminary; the full report follows in mid-December 2026.
Sources: MOM Labour Market Advance Release 3Q 2026, 30 Oct 2026; MOM Labour Market Report 2Q 2026, 21 Sep 2026; MOM Labour Market Report 1Q 2021 (4Q 2020 figure).
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Graduate Hiring Slows Before Layoffs
The figures point to two pressures that can be confused but are not the same: workers losing existing jobs and graduates finding fewer or less secure entry points. The available Singapore data show retrenchments rising, but do not show young workers being laid off at the highest rate. In second-quarter figures, workers under 30 had the lowest layoff rate of any age group. For new graduates, the concern is more about a slower route into work and a decline in permanent positions.
That distinction matters for policy and employers. If firms are reorganising their operations, retraining and support for displaced workers may be needed; if entry-level hiring is slowing, graduates may face longer searches and fewer opportunities to gain experience. The source material does not establish how much either trend is caused by AI. Treating every layoff or difficult job search as an AI effect would go beyond what the reported figures show.
Across Southeast Asia, the International Labour Organization estimates that about 80 million workers are in jobs with some exposure to generative AI. It says there is no evidence so far of large-scale job losses across the region. Its reported findings also indicate that youth employment in highly exposed jobs fell faster than overall employment in the Philippines and Thailand. Exposure describes potential contact with the technology, not proof that a job has been eliminated because of it.
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What Singapore’s Figures Measure
The October 30 release was the Ministry of Manpower’s Labour Market Advance Release, which provides a preliminary quarterly snapshot. It records retrenchments, employment and unemployment; it does not classify layoffs under an “AI” category. The ministry attributed the main pressure to business reorganisation, including in outward-oriented industries. The full report, including more detail on sectors and workers’ re-entry into employment, is expected in mid-December.
The difference between retrenchments and graduate employment is central to interpreting the news. Retrenchment data count workers whose jobs have been cut, while graduate employment surveys track whether recent graduates find work and what kind of jobs they obtain. Singapore’s graduate results show lower employment and full-time permanent employment shares for the 2025 cohort than for the previous cohort, but they do not by themselves identify AI as the reason.
Regional concerns are also being voiced by officials. Prime Minister Lawrence Wong has warned that “the bottom rung of the career ladder” may break. Minister of State Foo Cexiang has said Singapore must act “quite quickly,” warning that elsewhere “the cliff can be quite sharp.” Those comments describe a risk and a policy concern, rather than a finding that AI has already caused widespread graduate job losses.
“Quite quickly”
— Singapore Minister of State Foo Cexiang
AI’s Role Is Not Counted
Singapore’s retrenchment statistics do not identify AI-related layoffs, so the third-quarter total cannot show how many job cuts, if any, resulted from AI adoption. In an April survey cited in the source material, 6.2% of firms that had adopted AI said they had cut headcount after adopting it. That figure is a survey response, not a count of all layoffs caused by AI, and it does not establish causation in individual cases.
The third-quarter release is preliminary, and the detailed breakdown of who was retrenched and why is not yet available for that quarter. The second-quarter figures show most retrenched workers were PMETs, but they cannot be treated as a full third-quarter profile. It is also unclear whether weaker graduate employment reflects AI, broader changes in hiring, differences among fields of study or other factors. The available data do not separate those effects.
Full Labour Report Due in December
The Ministry of Manpower is expected to publish its full third-quarter labour-market report in mid-December. That release should add sector detail and information on re-entry rates, allowing a clearer view of the workers affected and what happens after retrenchment. Until then, the 4,800 figure remains preliminary.
For graduates and employers, the next indicators to watch are whether hiring and permanent-job rates improve, and whether retrenchments continue to rise alongside employment growth. Government statements signal attention to entry-level work and the potential effects of AI, but the source material does not provide a confirmed new policy measure or timeline. Claims about AI-driven job losses should be assessed against specific evidence as it becomes available.
Key Questions
What happened in Singapore’s labour market?
Singapore reported 4,800 preliminary retrenchments in the third quarter of 2026, up from 4,620 in the previous quarter. It was the highest quarterly count since the fourth quarter of 2020.
Does the data show AI caused the layoffs?
No. The Ministry of Manpower said business reorganisation was the main driver. Its retrenchment statistics do not have an AI-specific category, so the number of layoffs caused by AI is not established.
Are graduates being laid off at the highest rate?
The reported second-quarter data show workers under 30 had the lowest layoff rate among age groups. Graduate outcomes nevertheless weakened: fewer job-seeking graduates from the 2025 university cohort found work within six months than in the previous cohort.
What was the graduate employment rate?
Among job-seeking graduates from Singapore’s six public universities, 83.4% of the 2025 cohort had found work within six months, down from 87.1%. The share in full-time permanent jobs fell to 74.4% from 79.4%.
When will more detailed figures be available?
The Ministry of Manpower’s full third-quarter report is expected in mid-December 2026. The October 30 advance release is preliminary and contains less detail.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
